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A former special forces colonel, government minister Al Carns was this week on manouevres warning that the UK needs to be preparing for war with Russia.

“The shadow of war is knocking on Europe’s door again. That’s the reality. We’ve got to be prepared to deter it,” he said, in remarks that exceed previous warnings by his superior, the defence secretary.

“Collectively, everybody – what is their role if we get caught in an fight for survival, and what do they need to be aware they need to do and what they can’t do, and how do we mobilise the nation to support a military endeavour?”

It was blunt language from the 45-year-old Scottish-born MP, who has had an remarkably rapid rise to his role of minister for the military.

A Swift Political Ascent

And inevitably for a politician with a background in the armed forces, there is speculation about whether he is future leadership material – as with, at various points, other military figures before him.

This time, however, some ruling party MPs think there could be a real prospect of Carns being a contender if and when the opportunity arises.

One of the reasons for that is that Carns has been engaged with politics for longer than it seems, as a former military adviser to multiple previous defence secretaries.

But there is also the danger of being overhyped as a politician with a backstory colleagues think will resonate with the public – without enough thought of whether they have the experience and political instincts to make it to the top.

From the Battlefield to Westminster

Carns was born in Aberdeen, and state educated, before enlisting in the Royal Marines in 1999 at the age of 19. He rose through the ranks and was awarded the Military Cross in 2011 “for gallant and distinguished services in Afghanistan”.

It came as a surprise when he left the armed forces after 24 years of service to run as an MP in Birmingham Selly Oak, just prior to he was due to be promoted to brigadier.

And in a sign he was immediately earmarked as a talent, the prime minister appointed him as a minister for veterans affairs straight after the 2024 election. He was promoted later that year to the more prominent position with a portfolio covering all the military.

Public Profile and Partisan Combat

With a commanding presence, Carns has been an occasional media performer for the government, and has been an sharp partisan operator when criticising rival parties over issues of national security.

He has also found time to set a new global benchmark this year along with former military colleagues by climbing Mount Everest in under five days without acclimatising on the mountain, using xenon gas.

Ambitions and Party Skepticism

His name was floated as a possible future leader in earnest around the time of a leadership election last autumn, when his backers began sounding out MPs about a run for the job. That did not gain traction, with the prime minister's office firmly backing another candidate.

Since then, feature articles of Carns have begun to appear in the media, with one newspaper presenting him as the “Action Man” that some were trying to prevent from ousting the prime minister.

While some MPs think he could be leadership material, others think he is making himself appear too ambitious when there is no vacancy at the top. There is also a apprehension about the meteoric ascent of a high flyer from outside politics.

“There’s no evidence that being senior in the military translates to being any good at politics any more than being a top prosecutor,” says one MP. “He is an unknown quantity.”